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Saturday, January 2, 2021

[7]No, IT is not about data (alone)

     January 02, 2021    [8]Chris
     __________________________________________________________________

   In my first weeks working at an OT specialist company, I was often
   explained IT people do not understand OT. Because OT is all about
   physical processes and IT is about data.

   The comparison is incorrect. Data is important for both OT and IT. You
   must protect readings. Integrity is of great importance. I think there
   is a better comparison: If OT revolves around physical processes, the
   counterpart revolves around administrative processes. OT brews the
   beer, the counterpart sends the bill. Both are processes.

   The image below is a generalization of "a process". That could be
   brewing beer, or sending the bill. Input and output in OT are physical,
   in the counterpart they are data. They both need steering information.
   Automation is used in both.
   [9][image.png]

   There are differences in the impact of a disruption of the process. It
   makes a big difference if you have to throw away a million liters of
   beer and brew it again because of a quality problem or if you send the
   bill too late.

   You would say that the consequences on the OT side often have more
   impact than on the side of the counterpart. Yet, in OT the one
   responsible for brewing beer is handling the automation himself, where
   the one sending out the bill has set up an IT department.

   Time for change?
   [10]Read More

     [11]IACS

     [12]No Comments

Wednesday, November 11, 2020

[13]Cyber security value

     November 11, 2020    [14]Chris
     __________________________________________________________________

   [15][1604920427_cover-schade_5-2020.jpg]
   When you damage your car you do not immediately think of a total loss.
   It is much more common that there is a dent in it that can be easily
   repaired. This chance is greater than the chance of a total loss.
   Logical? Not when it comes to IT risks! Then we traditionally go to
   work with maximum damage. But that can also be done differently.

   I wrote an [16]article about it for Schade Magazine. (Dutch, [17]Google
   translate)
   [18]Read More

     [19]governance / [20]risk

     [21]No Comments

Wednesday, October 21, 2020

[22]Article on quantitative risk analysis published

     October 21, 2020    [23]Chris
     __________________________________________________________________

    ISSA published my [24]article on quantitative risk analysis.
   [25]Read More

     [26]risk

     [27]No Comments

Monday, October 5, 2020

[28]We need Top Management awareness

     October 05, 2020    Chreetz
     __________________________________________________________________

   Awareness training in cybersecurity is often the equivalent of telling
   road users to be careful. It is a good idea, but it will have limited
   impact. On the road, we have rules such as please keep driving on the
   right, give space to people coming from the right and do not go faster
   than 50 km/h. Next to that, we have infrastructure to support the safe
   usage, like traffic lights, pedestrian crossings, and guardrails. And
   finally, we have legislation and enforcement by the police. Our society
   is aware off the fact these measures are all necessities to support
   safe road usage. In cybersecurity we need this as well. I call it Top
   Management Awareness.
   The standard way of addressing cybersecurity in your company is to
   organize it in accordance with the ISO27001. This standard makes it
   very clear top management is accountable for a proper functioning
   Information Security Management System. Top management should be aware
   of this accountability and should be aware of the implications. Similar
   to road users, top management needs to provide rules, infrastructure,
   enforcement etcetera. This is not always the case.
   In my experience this lack of awareness is due to two reasons:
    1. Optimism bias
       The risk is perceived lower than it is. Many security problems
       arise from technical problems, which are hard to explain to non-IT
       educated people. It is perceived to be so hard to misuse these
       technical imperfections that chances someone will misuse them is
       very low. Next to the idea that the company is an unlikely target
       is persisting. It leads to the idea cybersecurity is exaggerated by
       the specialists and does not need much management attention.
    2. Fatalistic thinking
       Cybersecurity is too hard to implement. The ISO27001 includes 114
       controls. The NIST SP800-53, which is more detailed, contains 965
       controls. Fatalistic thinking refers to the belief it is impossible
       to achieve a sufficient level of security.

   [29][Afbeelding1.jpg]
   The quickest way of creating awareness at the top of an organisation is
   a cybersecurity disaster. It immediately removes the optimism bias. The
   meme that circulated on Twitter a few weeks ago sums it up very well.
   Before the fact it is just a risk, which is perceived very low. After
   the event there is tangible damage. Not only the company is damaged,
   but personal reputation is also damaged. When the press is knocking on
   your door it is the CFO that needs to explain the situation, not the
   security manager.
   The smarter way is to perform a realistic quantitative risk analysis.
   This method will make the risk more tangible. It makes the risk more
   actionable, because the effects of adding extra controls can be made
   visible. Quantitative risk analysis gives management control of the
   level of risk they are willing to take and removes the ground for
   fatalistic thinking. Once top management understands the need to act
   and have the means to act, we gained true top management awareness.
   [30]Read More

     [31]governance / [32]nixu

Tuesday, January 14, 2020

[33](re)Move the budget!

     January 14, 2020    Chreetz
     __________________________________________________________________

   Are you expecting your IT department can work on a budget and keep
   things secure? Think again! But you could probably lift some weight of
   their shoulders, so they can do more with less.

   A few weeks ago, I saw parallels with Expedition Robinson - a reality
   television program in which contestants are put into survival
   situations - and the cybersecurity industry. There was a challenge
   where contestants had to carry sand filled bags around their neck and
   run a course. The last one to finish had to leave the game and had to
   choose another contestant to hand over his sandbags. In the last race
   an unfortunate guy had to carry almost all of the bags and he lost from
   a girl who hat to carry only a few. The weight was so heavy he could
   barely walk, let alone run.

   In IT it's often the CIO who has to carry all the bags. Departments
   demand more and more new services, but won't allow old ones to be
   removed. The IT department is expected to keep up with the latest
   technology AND to keep the old systems (often called `legacy') running.
   The weight becomes heavier and heavier.

   This is due to the fact that legacy is harder to maintain. Older
   applications may need older Operating Systems, older Databases and
   sometimes even older hardware to run on. Some of these components may
   run out of supplier support. At that point security patches are no
   longer available and extra mitigating measures must be put in place.
   For all the components you need to have expertise but since people want
   to move on with modern technology (they have a career too), it will
   become harder to find.

   To exploit a vulnerability, an attacker must have at least one
   applicable tool or technique that can connect to a system weakness. In
   this frame, vulnerability is also known as the attack surface or
   exposure. The more different systems in use, the bigger the exposure,
   the bigger the risk.

   At the same time the departments usually only pay for the initial
   project implementing new systems, but don't have to pay the maintenance
   costs. Maintenance is part of the IT budget. Leaving `old stuff'
   running comes at no cost for them. It's free shopping, while replacing
   the legacy will cost them. It is a kind of prisoner's dilemma  between
   the supplying IT department and the various consuming other
   departments. They can have an overall better, more secure, IT system if
   they cooperate and stop acting on individual interests.

   Running Legacy is not only insecure, it's also expensive. decreasing
   the cost will improve security, but the opposite is also true:
   Improving security will decrease the costs. Security can have a
   positive ROI.

    As a CISO you could leverage the cost of IT to improve overall
   security by making the actual costs of your high- risk legacy
   applications clear. Analyse the dependencies and take into account that
   every component needs to be maintained. Then visualize which department
   is responsible for these hidden costs. In my experience this will
   trigger an important discussion: Why is the IT budget so unevenly
   spread? Why does IT carry all the load, while they don't?
   [34]Read More

     [35]governance / [36]nixu

     [37]No Comments

Wednesday, November 6, 2019

[38]Clean up!

     November 06, 2019    [39]Chris
     __________________________________________________________________

   I recently visited the [40]Risk and Resilience Festival at the
   University of Twente. One of the keynote speakers was Maarten van
   Aalst, Director of the international Red Cross Red Crescent Climate
   Centre, and professor at the University of Twente. He told a story
   about Bangladesh and how the frequent flooding lead to increasing
   numbers of casualties. It was too simple, he said, to blame climate
   change. A much bigger impact was the increasing population. The more
   people there are living in the Ganges Delta, the bigger the exposure.
   It reminded me of the fact that exposure is often something we can
   influence.
   A common approach in IT risk management is to carry out a Threat and
   Vulnerability assessment (TVA). In cyber security, a threat is a
   possible danger that might exploit a vulnerability to breach security
   and therefore cause possible harm. A threat can be either "intentional"
   (i.e. hacking: an individual or a criminal organization) or
   "accidental" (e.g. the possibility of a computer malfunctioning, or the
   possibility of a natural disaster such as an earthquake, a fire, or a
   tornado) or otherwise a circumstance, capability, action, or event. A
   vulnerability is a weakness which can be exploited by a threatening
   actor, such as an attacker, to perform unauthorized actions within a
   computer system.

Exposure

   [41][Risk%2Bcomponents.png]
   To exploit a vulnerability, an attacker must have at least one
   applicable tool or technique that can connect to a system weakness. In
   this frame, vulnerability is also known as the attack surface or
   exposure. However, in most cases TVA exposure does not get much
   attention. When evaluated, exposure is usually estimated in a
   high-mid-low manner and then combined with `severity' in a [42]heatmap.
   The recommended way to minimize exposure is often to either patch a
   system to remove the vulnerability or move a vulnerable system into a
   separate network to hide it from an attacker.
   While the increasing human casualties in Bangladesh is mainly due to
   the rising population, the increasing number of hacks is (also) due to
   the increasing amount of assets. Assets, in this context, can be
   hardware, applications, platforms and data. The more you have, the
   higher your exposure.
   Although it is common to believe that `what you don't own you don't
   have to protect', organizations do not seem to prioritize the inventory
   of assets. When performing a very basic assessment of the security
   status of an organization, I prefer to use the [43]CIS security
   controls as a baseline. The CIS identifies 6 basic controls. The top
   three are:
    1. [44]Inventory and Control of Hardware Assets
    2. [45]Inventory and Control of Software Assets
    3. [46]Continuous Vulnerability Management

   The top two are about being aware of what you own, including software
   and hardware. In my experience, most of the organizations have no
   complete overview. In fact, it is often far from complete. Basic
   questions regarding purpose and function remain unanswered. The common
   reason being that the organizations find it `impossible' to keep track
   of so many different assets. If that is the case, the organizations
   can't manage the vulnerabilities in the various assets - and it's safe
   to assume there are many vulnerabilities present. A high number of
   vulnerabilities and a large exposure equate a big risk.
   One way to mitigate this risk is to try and manage the vulnerabilities.
   Organizations implement a vulnerability scanner. This will automate the
   inventory of vulnerabilities, but fixing the detected vulnerabilities
   requires manual effort. It is not uncommon to find multiple
   vulnerabilities on one server, and when scanning only a few hundred
   IP-addresses you can easily end up with an excessively lengthy report.
   The scanner is not able to detect and repot old or uncommon assets,
   monitoring network traffic is difficult. Of course, it is possible to
   sniff the network, but if you rely on artificial intelligence to
   discern genuine traffic from malicious traffic, it will be quite a
   nave mistake.
   It may not be feasible in Bangladesh to diminish the exposure by moving
   people out of the Ganges Delta, but in IT we can. If we want to
   decrease the risk, the best way is to remove of as many assets from the
   hypothetical risk scenario. This will decrease the exposure and
   decrease the effort needed to perform vulnerability management. The
   best security investment you can make might be to get rid of your
   legacy applications.

How to convince your environment?

   I know from experience removing legacy is not a sexy subject. Of course
   no-one will really object against cleaning up. Who wants to be against
   that? However, removing legacy usually requires replacing one or more
   old applications with a new up-to-date one. This can be very costly and
   it may have impact on the way of working employees are used to. When
   faced with the decision to either implement a new application or a
   project to clean up legacy, the latter will be second choice.
   One way to create some urgency is to make the risk visible. A breach in
   a legacy application may lead to severe damage. We recommend that
   organizations perform a quantitative risk analysis on the legacy
   systems and then calculate the risk. It is important to remember that
   this initiative will likely save significant capital in the long-term.
   [47]Read More

     [48]governance / [49]nixu / [50]risk

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Monday, July 1, 2019

[52]Quantitative Risk Analysis

     July 01, 2019    [53]Chris
     __________________________________________________________________

   IT security essentially reduces information related risk to an
   acceptable ratio of risk to cost. For this reason, the process begins
   with an extensive risk assessment - a tried and tested process that can
   be improved. I am inspired by the work of Douglas Hubbard on this
   topic. Here's why.
   Traditional risk analysis starts by creating a list of things that
   could go wrong. We estimate the maximum impact as well as probability
   and we multiply these figures to "calculate" the risk.
   In some cases, this works reasonably well. The (financial) risk of a
   laptop being stolen from a parked car can be estimated like this. When
   a company owns a few thousand laptops it will happen several times per
   year. After a few years the number becomes predictable. The value of a
   laptop is harder to estimate. During presentations, when I ask the
   value of a laptop I'm holding up, the response of the audience is
   usually in the range of the list price of the laptop. After I tell them
   it holds the only copy of a research project someone has been working
   on for six weeks, the estimates inevitably rise. The estimates might
   increase further once we know that the laptop has shareholder
   information or a customer database saved on its hard drive.
   Not all laptops will contain this kind of valuable information.
   However, these variables are often not adequately addressed in
   traditional IT risk management. The standard risk calculation is as
   follows: estimation laptop is stolen is 2% (per year), estimation
   laptops containing valuable information is 50%, probability of risk is
   2% x 50%=1% (per year).
   Even for such a simple risk calculation, the analysis is elusively
   complex. Risks with a very high impact and a low probability are even
   more elusive. What if your company is put on some blacklist and your
   cloud-based system, including all your data, becomes unavailable
   because the provider is not allowed to do business with you anymore?
   Not a very likely scenario, I admit, but what if this provider was
   hacked or goes bankrupt? This scenario is perhaps more probably. Worst
   case you lose all your data, but again this is not very likely. In
   traditional risk analyses the risk will be calculated using maximum
   impact:
   risk = (almost zero) x (ridiculous amount of money) = nonsense.
   Reality is not black and white. The impact of an unwanted event is not
   zero or maximum damage. Fire in the datacentre is usually very local,
   because of a failing power supply. A datacentre burning down to the
   ground is not very common. The damage in any incident will most likely
   be in the range of tens of thousands of euro's, the maximum damage will
   be a number of millions. The fact that damage is probably a lot lower
   in most cases is completely ignored with this method.
   One may argue, for absolute values the traditional methods are not
   ideal, but at least it's one strategy to use when prioritizing risk.
   In traditional risk analysis risks are categorized in levels of impact
   (Negligible, minor, moderate, ...) and levels of likelihood
   (improbable, seldom, occasional, ...). A matrix is created where all
   the identified risks are plotted. Usually it is color-coded to
   categorize high impact and high probability (red), low impact and low
   probability (green) and everything in between (gradients). It's often
   called a heatmap.
   [54][HeatMap.png]
   Graph
   source: [55]https://www.sketchbubble.com/en/presentation-risk-heatmap.h
   tml
   Hubbard gives a few examples in his book. For this example, the
   category "seldom" is defined as >1%-25% and category "catastrophic" as
   >10 Million like in the heatmap example above. Let's assume we
   identified two risks:
   risk A: likelihood is 2%, impact in 10 Million
   risk B: likelihood is 20%, impact is 100 Million
   When we calculate the risk as likelihood x impact, risk B is 100 times
   risk A. They would however be plotted in the same cell of the matrix.
   In the same way you could end up with risks which are very similar but
   end up in different cells.
   A way to address the fact that there is variance in the impact of any
   event is to assume that the probability of any amount of damage will
   follow a normal distribution. A normal distribution is shown in the
   diagram below. The mean value will have the highest probability, very
   low and very high values will have a low probability, meaning that the
   bandwidth will vary. In the diagram below the blue line the mean value
   for blue, red and yellow lines is zero. The probability we are between
   -0.5 and 0.5 is much higher with the blue line than with the yellow
   line.

                [56][1280px-Normal_Distribution_PDF.svg.png]
                                    Graph
   source: [57]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Normal_distribution#/media/Fi
                       le:Normal_Distribution_PDF.svg

   Applied to the stolen laptop example the risk can now be defined as:
   Risk = (2% chance per year a laptop is stolen) x
   (90% probability the impact is between 1000 and 25000 euro)
   A giant data leak may occur resulting in millions of damages when a
   single laptop is stolen, the probability however is very low (less than
   5%, probably lower).
   Note we now define the risk as a change or probability of damage
   instead of an absolute amount of money. In my opinion, this models the
   real world, where we can predict the course of the impact of events
   happening, but we cannot predict the impact of individual events.
   People who play the lottery will "win" about half of the money they pay
   for their tickets, but the chance of someone winning the jackpot is
   miniscule.
   [58]Read More

     [59]risk

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     * [64]Clean up!
       I recently visited the Risk and Resilience Festival at the
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     * [65]No, IT is not about data (alone)
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     * [66]We need Top Management awareness
       Awareness training in cybersecurity is often the equivalent of
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  84. javascript:void(0)
  85. http://www.vdhooven.nl/2019/
  86. javascript:void(0)
  87. http://www.vdhooven.nl/2019/11/
  88. javascript:void(0)
  89. http://www.vdhooven.nl/2019/07/
  90. javascript:void(0)
  91. http://www.vdhooven.nl/2019/03/
  92. http://www.vdhooven.nl/
  93. http://www.blogger.com/
  94. http://www.wpmultiverse.com/
  95. http://btemplates.com/author/new-blogger-themes/
  96. http://www.vdhooven.nl/#topnbt

   Hidden links:
  98. http://www.vdhooven.nl/2019/11/clean-up.html
  99. http://www.vdhooven.nl/2021/01/no-it-is-not-about-data-alone.html
 100. http://www.vdhooven.nl/2020/12/awareness-training-in-cybersecurity-is.html